How to Play
Game 3 is a Monty Hall problem run as a betting game. The math strongly favours one strategy — but bet sizing changes your risk profile dramatically.
Step 1 — Pick
Three chests are presented. One holds Gold. The other two hold farm animals. You pick one and place your bet in $BIRB.
Step 2 — Reveal
The game reveals one of the other two chests — always showing a farm animal. You now know one wrong chest.
Step 3 — Switch?
You decide to switch to the remaining chest or stick with your original pick. Switching wins 66.7% of the time.
Step 4 — Gold
Finding Gold earns you Gold equal to your $BIRB bet. At game end, all $BIRB played + bonus is split pro-rata to Gold holders.
Strategy SimulatorGame 3
Total Deposits
0
$BIRB committed so far
Unique Players
0
Wallets participating
Final Pool (est.)
~0
$BIRB estimated at close
USD Value (est.)
—
—
Your Setup
Your total stake
$BIRB
Your current Gold
Gold
Assumptions
How smart is the crowd?
80%
100% = crowd always switch
How degenerate is the crowd?
5%
0% = pure strategy · 100% = coin-flip
Bonus from unclaimed tokens (%)
%
Final pool estimate: ~0 $BIRB
Results
Recommended approach
Always Switch
Wins Gold 66.7% of rounds
Typical Gold earned (50 plays)
—
Run simulation to see
Chance of profit (50 plays)
—
Always switch strategy
Gold Earned — by Strategy & Number of Plays
Enter your stake above and click Run Simulation.
Low — a bad-luck run
Typical — most sessions
High — a lucky run
How are these defined?
⚠ Estimates from simulation only — not financial advice. Actual outcomes depend on final pool size, crowd behaviour, and whale concentration at game close on March 28. Stategies can also be better than the estimated output. This is purely based on maths and estimates of a large number of simulations, likely far larger than practical birb game plays
Game depositsGame 1
No snapshot yet. Snapshots are created hourly.
Previous GamesHistory
Total Deposits
7,295,317
Players
—
Extra Pool Added
+20%
Character Outcomes
👑
Birb
30.8%
2,246,778 $BIRB
deposited
Won vs Zendeposited
Zen
23.2%
1,689,446 $BIRB
deposited
Lost to Birbdeposited
Toobins
23.0%
1,680,519 $BIRB
deposited
Lost to Pipdeposited
👑
Pip
23.0%
1,678,574 $BIRB
deposited
Won vs Toobinsdeposited
Analytics
No snapshot yet. Snapshots are created hourly.